History is Happening Now

January 28, 2009

Throwing Sand in Our Eyes

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ian @ 6:13 pm

Do the folks who write editorials for the Wall Street Journal ever talk to the folks who write articles for the Wall Street Journal?

Consider recent reporting/opining about Barack Obama’s $800-billion-plus economic stimulus bill. Here’s how Greg Hitt and Elizabeth Williamson describe it in their article from January 28, 2009:

The economic stimulus package proposed by Democratic House leaders totals $825 billion and includes three broad pieces: a $365.6 billion spending measure for such brick-and-mortar projects as highways and bridges; a $180 billion measure to boost jobless benefits and Medicaid, among other things; and a $275 billion tax-relief package, which includes a plan to give a $500 payroll tax holiday to all workers, a proposal from Mr. Obama’s presidential campaign.

If you pay attention to the arguments that the super-pundits of the right are making in their efforts to defeat this bill, you’d think it was different. Here’s an excerpt from a recent editorial in the Wall Street Journal:

In selling the plan, President Obama has said this bill will make “dramatic investments to revive our flagging economy.” Well, you be the judge. Some $30 billion, or less than 5% of the spending in the bill, is for fixing bridges or other highway projects. There’s another $40 billion for broadband and electric grid development, airports and clean water projects that are arguably worthwhile priorities.

Add the roughly $20 billion for business tax cuts, and by our estimate only $90 billion out of $825 billion, or about 12 cents of every $1, is for something that can plausibly be considered a growth stimulus. And even many of these projects aren’t likely to help the economy immediately. As Peter Orszag, the President’s new budget director, told Congress a year ago, “even those [public works] that are ‘on the shelf’ generally cannot be undertaken quickly enough to provide timely stimulus to the economy.”

So let’s try to understand. According to the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, the following things can “plausibly be considered a growth stimulus”: fixing bridges or other highway projects, broadband and electric grid development, airports and clean water projects. Presumably, all these projects fall under the category of “a $365.6 billion spending measure for such brick-and-mortar projects as highways and bridges,” as reported in the news article. So if you subtract the $70 billion in construction projects mentioned in the editorial from the $365.6 billion in the news article, you get … $295 billion in “such brick-and-mortar projects as highways and bridges.”

Why can the $70 billion mentioned “plausibly be considered a growth stimulus” but the other $295 billion can’t? The editorial doesn’t say.

Also, the editorial refers to the $20 billion in business tax cuts as spending that “can plausibly be considered stimulus,” leaving out at least 90% of “a $275 billion tax-relief package, which includes a plan to give a $500 payroll tax holiday to all workers,” as reported in the article.

Why can $20 billion in business tax cuts “plausibly be considered stimulus,” but more than $250 billion in additional tax cuts cannot? Once again, the editorial doesn’t say. It’s as though the rest of the tax cuts in the bill don’t exist.

The editorial has this to say later on:

Here’s another lu-lu: Congress wants to spend $600 million more for the federal government to buy new cars. Uncle Sam already spends $3 billion a year on its fleet of 600,000 vehicles. Congress also wants to spend $7 billion for modernizing federal buildings and facilities. The Smithsonian is targeted to receive $150 million; we love the Smithsonian, too, but this is a job creator?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand how it might help the economy if the United States government pumped $600 million into the market for new cars at a time when the American auto industry is on the verge of collapse. And as for the $7 billion for “modernizing federal buildings and facilities,” it’s impossible to fathom how the Wall Street Journal could miss that this project supports jobs: It provides money to employ the people who will be modernizing federal buildings and facilities.

It’s interesting how the editorial uses different terms at different times in order to avoid acknowledging the incoherence of its arguments. For example, the editorial refers to some projects as “arguably worthwhile priorities,” as if the most important criteria we should use to evaluate spending items is whether the spending is “worthwhile.” Then, in the next paragraph, it refers to projects that “can plausibly be considered a growth stimulus,” as if the most important issue is not whether a project is “worthwhile,” but whether a project stimulates growth. Then, later on, the editorial asks if a particular project is a “job creator,” as if this is the most important issue.

What if the editorial were forced to be consistent — forced, in other words, to evaluate whether the modernization of federal buildings and facilities is “worthwhile” or “can plausibly be considered a growth stimulus”? I think the answers to these questions would obviously be yes, and the same goes for the plan to spend a measley $600 million on cars.

Here’s another paragraph from the editorial:

We’ve looked it over, and even we can’t quite believe it. There’s $1 billion for Amtrak, the federal railroad that hasn’t turned a profit in 40 years; $2 billion for child-care subsidies; $50 million for that great engine of job creation, the National Endowment for the Arts; $400 million for global-warming research and another $2.4 billion for carbon-capture demonstration projects. There’s even $650 million on top of the billions already doled out to pay for digital TV conversion coupons.

In discussing the $1 billion for Amtrak, they abandon altogether the idea that the spending should be “worthwhile” or “stimulus” or a “job creator,” and assert instead that Amtrak shouldn’t get the money because it hasn’t turned a profit in 40 years. Why is it relevant that Amtrak doesn’t turn a profit? The editorial doesn’t say. Then, it mysteriously mentions child-care subsidies and then refuses to make any argument about why it’s notable — an understandable omission, since these subsidies are worthwhile, they do create jobs, they can be considered stimulus, and child care workers generally turn a small profit.

And there’s this bit in the editorial:

Oh, and don’t forget education, which would get $66 billion more. That’s more than the entire Education Department spent a mere 10 years ago and is on top of the doubling under President Bush. Some $6 billion of this will subsidize university building projects. If you think the intention here is to help kids learn, the House declares on page 257 that “No recipient . . . shall use such funds to provide financial assistance to students to attend private elementary or secondary schools.” Horrors: Some money might go to nonunion teachers.

First of all, it’s fascinating to consider the Wall Street Journal’s argument: If you think the intention behind spending $66 billion on education is to help children learn, you’re wrong — and the reason you’re wrong is that the money won’t give students tuition to private schools. Consider how stupid or blinded by ideology you’d have to be to accept this argument as logical. Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal is now suggesting that this $66 billion should be evaluated based on whether it helps kids learn. What about “stimulus?” What about “job creation?” What about “worthwhile priorities?” Why can it “plausibly be considered a growth stimulus” to repair a road or a bridge, but not a school building?

The editorial also includes this:

Another “stimulus” secret is that some $252 billion is for income-transfer payments — that is, not investments that arguably help everyone, but cash or benefits to individuals for doing nothing at all. There’s $81 billion for Medicaid, $36 billion for expanded unemployment benefits, $20 billion for food stamps, and $83 billion for the earned income credit for people who don’t pay income tax. While some of that may be justified to help poorer Americans ride out the recession, they aren’t job creators.

So now the issue at hand is whether these expenditures “help everyone,” and whether these expenditures are “job creators.” Obviously, by definiton, jobless benefits are not going to be job creators — but isn’t it obvious that expanding benefits to the poor and unemployed will help the economy, as the poor and unemployed are the most likely to spend the money given to them, rather than saving or investing it? Can’t these programs “plausibly be considered growth stimulus?”

As for the idea that the spending should “help everyone,” it’s hard to see how federal money spent repairing a bridge on the west coast will help folks on the east coast, but these projects are apparently acceptable to the Wall Street Journal.

The editorial is so transparently disingenuous and manipulative that it’s hard to understand why such as editorial isn’t embarressing to the newspaper — but then, the Journal’s owner, Rupert Murdoch, probably figures that right-wingers aren’t looking for clarity and logic.

You Will Be Judged on What You’ve Built

Filed under: 12, 7, Pakistan — Lee @ 4:27 am

The NYT has published what seems to me a disturbing and ominous article about the Obama administration’s stance toward Afghanistan. The article informs us that “President Obama intends to adopt a tougher line toward Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, as part of a new American approach to Afghanistan that will put more emphasis on waging war than on development, senior administration officials said Tuesday.”

In short, the White House is distancing itself from the current president of Afghanistan and is deprioritizing aid and reconstruction in favor of increased military engagement:

The officials portrayed the approach as a departure from that of President Bush, who held videoconferences with Mr. Karzai every two weeks and sought to emphasize the American role in rebuilding Afghanistan and its civil institutions.

They said that the Obama administration would work with provincial leaders as an alternative to the central government, and that it would leave economic development and nation-building increasingly to European allies, so that American forces could focus on the fight against insurgents.

Shortly before taking office as vice president last week, Mr. Biden traveled to Afghanistan in his role as the departing chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He met with Mr. Karzai and warned him that the Obama administration would expect more of him than Mr. Bush did, administration officials said. He told Mr. Karzai that Mr. Obama would be discontinuing the video calls that Mr. Karzai enjoyed with Mr. Bush, said a senior official, who added that Mr. Obama expected Mr. Karzai to do more to crack down on corruption.

“If it looks like we’re abandoning the central government and focusing just on the local areas, we will run afoul of Afghan politics,” Mr. Khalilzad [an Afghan-American who is a former United States ambassador to the United Nations and is viewed as a possible challenger to Mr. Karzai] said. “Some will regard it as an effort to break up the Afghan state, which would be regarded as hostile policy.”

This article leaves me asking a few questions. Is it wise to abandon direct consultation with the president of Afghanistan at the same time that we intend to send up to three additional brigades to that country? What are the risks of “outsourcing” reconstruction and aid to our NATO allies at this crucial juncture in Afghanistan’s history? One should note that a clear majority of Europeans are resistant to Obama’s call to send more troops to Afghanistan, according to Reuters:

Most voters in leading European countries believe their governments should resist any request by incoming U.S. President Barack Obama to send more troops to Afghanistan, according to an opinion poll published on Tuesday.

The Financial Times said 60 percent of German respondents in the survey opposed Berlin sending more troops to Afghanistan.

In Britain, the second biggest contributor to NATO’s mission in Afghanistan with more than 8,000 troops, 57 percent of those polled rejected sending more forces.

In France and Italy, 53 percent were opposed. Only in Spain was there a majority willing to consider sending extra troops, the Financial Times said.

It seems to me that if we’re going to be involved at all in Afghanistan (and Pakistan) then one of our primary mission should be to build up good relations with the civil societies of both countries — to provide aid, build infrastructure, and listen carefully to the needs of the people who are there. Our primary emphasis should be on reconstruction and genuine economic development, not warfare.

As Obama quite rightly said in his interview with Al-Arabiya: “You will be judged on what you’ve built, not what you’ve destroyed.” What exactly are we building in Afghanistan and Pakistan? How will we be judged?

Obama’s Bipartisanship

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ian @ 12:53 am

I’m predicting the final vote on Obama’s $800 billion-plus fiscal stimulus bill will be split along party lines, with only a few rogue Republicans in the House and Senate voting to support the bill.

In spite of Obama’s extraordinary efforts to work with the G.O.P. on this legislation, Republicans won’t support the bill for a variety of reasons. As Politico notes:

With most moderates having retired or been defeated, especially among House Republicans, there is little political danger in opposing nearly another trillion dollars in spending at a time when many conservative-leaning voters are weary of government intervention after months of bailouts.

In other words, the moderates — those Republicans who would have been most tempted to support the bill — were replaced with Democrats in the last election.

Furthermore, Republicans understand that in order for their party to return to power anytime soon, Obama must not go down in history as a phenomenally successful president; and this means they cannot hand Obama a massive political victory in the first weeks of his presidency. In his final column for the New York Times, Conservative columnist William Kristol correctly identifies the significance of Obama’s fortunes. He begins by acknowledging (proclaiming?) that a conservative era in American politics that began with Ronald Reagan has ended. Then, he considers whether the new era will be a liberal one:

The answer lies in the hands of one man: the 44th president. If Reagan’s policies had failed, or if he hadn’t been politically successful, the conservative ascendancy would have been nipped in the bud. So with President Obama today. Liberalism’s fate rests to an astonishing degree on his shoulders. If he governs successfully, we’re in a new political era. If not, the country will be open to new conservative alternatives.

I believe Kristol is right: If Obama is seen as a successful president, it will not only empower him to make significant progress in implementing his agenda throughout his eight years in office — it will also set the stage for Democratic dominance of American politics for a generation. Which is not what the uber-conservative Republicans want at all. So they can’t acknowledge that Obama’s plan is good for the country.

Finally, it seems that many conservatives honestly don’t think the stimulus bill will work. Consider the following reporting from Politico:

Obama’s soothing tones Tuesday couldn’t mask his disagreement with Republicans on the need for more tax cuts in the package. That was the first question he took in his meeting on the House side — and Obama brushed it away with a polite, but firm, no thanks.

“Feel free to whack me over the head because I probably will not compromise on that part,” Obama said of Republican opposition to the Democrats’ refundable tax credits, according to two sources in the room.

Finger-pointing aside, that partisan reality gets at why the relationship is fraying: irreconcilable differences.

“It lasted about two days,” quipped Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), when asked if the honeymoon was over.

Why so soon?

Because, he said, conservatives are just “not receptive” to Obama’s agenda.

Yet even Inhofe, a true-believing conservative who represents a state in which Obama lost every county, is unwilling to take after his former colleague.

“He is very likable, he presented himself very well, and he seemed to want to be inclusive,” Inhofe said in a brief interview following Obama’s meeting. “But if the product is anything like we think it’s going to be, it’s not one that is going to be sellable to conservatives.”

In other words, a lot of Republicans will oppose the bill because it’s just not what conservatives want to do. That’s American democracy.

For all of these reasons, Republicans won’t give Obama the “bipartisan” support he is looking for. Nevertheless, the bill will pass — and then Obama’s political fortunes will rise or fall based on how effectively the bill turns our country’s economic frown upside-down. Of course, not long after the bill passes — maybe a few months later, maybe six months later — Republicans will argue that the bill was a dismal failure, and Democrats will argue that the bill was a smashing success. I believe this is basically the debate that will determine whether Congressional Democrats keep their majorities in Congress in 2010.

So lets hope the bill is a success, for the sake of the millions of Americans who will benefit from a strong economy, and for the sake of the millions of Americans who will benefit from another two years of Democratic governance.

So if Obama is doomed to fail in his efforts to win lots of yes votes from both parties on his stimulus bill, what is the point of all his extraordinary ”reaching out” to Republicans? All right, all right, perhaps calling it “extraordinary” is over-the-top. The media uses the word “rare.” As in:

Obama’s trip to Capitol Hill was rare for a sitting president, especially given his decision to meet only with the opposition. He met with Democratic lawmakers earlier this month.

                                                               -  The Washington Post

A week after being sworn into office, Mr. Obama returned to the Capitol for the first of what his advisers said would be frequent visits with members of Congress. Yet it was still a rare event for a president, particularly a Democratic one, to sit down with the entire Republican conference. …

It was far too early to say whether Mr. Obama’s visit to Capitol Hill would attract any more Republican votes for the economic recovery plan that is scheduled to be considered on Wednesday in the House. But officials from both sides said it was the beginning of a dialogue between Congressional Republicans and the White House that did not exist even when George W. Bush was in the Oval Office.

                                                                -  The New York Times

The rare trip by a president to Capitol Hill revealed the urgency in Congress and the White House over a cure for the souring economy

                                                                          –  The Wall Street Journal

So the Washington press corps seems to agree that Obama’s visit with Congressional Republicans was “rare.” It is also worth noting that his visit effectively compelled a number of Republicans to say nice things about him. Consider this from the L.A. Times:

Despite their opposition to the stimulus plan, many House Republicans came away from their meeting with Obama saying the president had impressively laid the groundwork for future cooperation.

“I thought it was a great gesture on his part and it begins a dialogue,” (Rep. Paul D. Ryan, R-Wis) said. “He did a good job starting us off, at least, beginning to talk to one another. And that will help him in the future.”

And this from the New York Times:

Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the House Republican leader, said after the meeting that significant philosophical differences remained between the president and the Republicans, but they also agreed on several fronts. The mere fact of the meeting, he said, was an early sign of a willingness by the White House to solicit input from all sides.

“We both share a sincere belief that we have to have a plan that works, that will revive our economy, create jobs and help preserve jobs in our country,” Mr. Boehner said. “I think our members enjoyed the conversation. I think the president enjoyed the conversation. I look forward to continuing to work with him to improve this package.”         

And this from Politico:

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), one of the House Republicans on Obama’s target list, lavished praise on the president for coming to visit in an interview after the lunch. But she indicated she was still uncertain if she could reward his effort.

“Do we need a stimulus? I believe we do. But do we need to spend the amount that were spending? I’m not convinced of that.”

Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.), asked if any of her colleagues were more inclined to support the stimulus measure after their back and forth with Obama, was more blunt: “I don’t think so.”

Of course, she didn’t want to place the blame at the president’s feet.

“It’s unfortunate that their leadership didn’t negotiate with us,” Biggert said. “The problem is that the process now is too far down the road.”

But, with a twinkle, she said, “he really cares about what he’s doing.”

Obama is “sincere.” He is “laying the groundwork for future cooperation.” He “did a good job” getting them to “talk to one another.” He has a “willingness” to “solicit input from all sides.” He “presented himself very well, and seemed to want to be inclusive.” He “really cares about what he’s doing.”

I don’t know what all this praise means, but it will be interesting to see how many of these same Republicans are willing to support nasty campaign ads against Obama in four years. It may be that Obama is actually setting a new tone in Washington — and setting a new precedent against with all future presidents will be judged in their treatment of members of Congress.

UPDATE: It appears the bill may win at least one Republican Senator’s vote, according to this report from a Politico article released tonight:

Rising above the fray Tuesday — but almost omnipresent — was Obama himself, meeting with rank-and-file House and Senate Republicans and making his case that the floor votes ahead are just the first steps in a larger action plan to address financial regulations, home foreclosures and banks teetering near insolvency.

“His presentation was a tour de force,” New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg told Politico. The top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, Gregg has been an outspoken critic of the level of new spending in the administration’s plan but said: “I felt much better. … He’s clearly moving forward aggressively on all the different fronts. I was very impressed. If he puts it in the context of an integrated effort, I’d consider it.”

Now why didn’t George W. Bush meet with rank-and-file Democrats and impress them with his “tour de force” presentations about his overall strategy in the War on Terror?

I guess we’ll never know.

 

January 26, 2009

Imagine Pakistan in Fundamentalist Hands

Filed under: Juan Cole, Pakistan — Lee @ 6:56 am

Juan Cole has written an article worth reading over at Salon.com, about the possible negative effects of Obama’s decision to bomb inside the territory of Pakistan. The most important bit:

The Pakistani government is now ruled by the largely secular, left-of-center Pakistan People’s Party, and President Asaf Ali Zardari blames the Taliban for the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto, late in 2007. Any dispute between Islamabad and the Obama administration centers on issues of national sovereignty, not on the question of whether the Taliban should be crushed. Pakistan’s own military is also fighting the Pakistan Taliban Movement and its tribal supporters. Early last week, Islamabad’s Frontier Corps pounded several villages of the Mohmand Agency, killing 60 militants. In the course of the past five months, Pakistani military operations against the Pakistani Taliban in the neighboring Bajaur Agency have left hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands homeless and displaced.

The risk Obama takes in continuing the Bush administration policy of bombing Pakistani territory is provoking further anger in the public of that country against the United States and harming the legitimacy of Zardari’s fragile elected government. A Gallup poll done last summer found that 45 percent of Pakistanis believe that the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan poses a threat to their country. Of Pakistanis who expressed an opinion on the matter, an overwhelming majority believed that the cooperation between the U.S. and the Pakistani military in the “war on terror” has mainly benefited Washington. If a more muscular American policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan sufficiently angers the Pakistani public, they could start voting for religious parties, delivering a nuclear state into the hands of Muslim fundamentalists.

The fundamentalist Jamaat-i Islami (JI), led by Qazi Husain Ahmad, held a rally of several thousand protesters in the Pakistani capital on Friday to protest the drone attacks and the ongoing military campaigns in FATA. (I saw the demonstration on satellite television, and it was clearly bigger than the wire services reported.) The coalition of religious parties of which the JI formed part was dealt a crushing rejection by the Pakistani electorate last February, but for the U.S. to continually bombard Pakistani territory could be a wedge issue whereby they return to political influence. Whereas the Jamaat-i Islami had welcomed Obama’s new path in the Muslim world before the strikes, the JI leader blasted the new president in their aftermath.

Read the whole article.

Cole reinforces my previously mentioned sense that continued Predator drone (or any other sort of U.S.) attacks on Pakistan will enhance the likelihood that the country will further radicalize, and collectively turn against us. If a change-promising liberal Democrat in effect continues the policy of the extremist far-right Bush — asserting the right to violate Pakistan’s territorial integrity at will, raining Hellfire missiles on houses, killing women and children — why would any rational Pakistani have any reasonable hope for improved relations with the U.S.? For an end to war and conflict in the region?

I would be very disturbed if control of the government of Pakistan moved from a center-left secular party strongly dedicated to stopping the Taliban to a right-wing political Islamic party with ties to (or sympathy for) the Taliban. In my view, every Hellfire missile — and every dead civilian — we deliver is a huge propaganda gift for the latter radical forces, and a blow to those forces within the country who should most naturally be our strongest allies.

And when we discuss Pakistan we must always remember the stakes: Pakistan is a nuclear power. If we regard a bunch of religious radicals with box cutters to be serious terrorist threats — as we rightly should — what then of a radicalized nuclear power?

January 25, 2009

Stupidity or Sabotage?

Filed under: Guantanamo Bay, Steve Benen, Washington Post — Lee @ 7:40 pm

When Chief Justice Roberts flubbed the Presidential oath of office — putting the word “faithfully” in the wrong place, saying “President to the United States” instead of “President of the United States” — I jokingly thought to myself that this might be the Bush administration’s final pot shot at Obama and the Democrats — trying to disrupt the symbolic power of the first African American taking that oath — or at the very least Roberts getting his revenge on Obama for voting against his appointment.

But I was wrong.

The flubbed administration of the oath of office isn’t going to be the final potshot by Bush II, and in fact some of the coming potshots will turn out to be much more like artillery fire. Witness this WaPo story:

President Obama’s plans to expeditiously determine the fates of about 245 terrorism suspects held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and quickly close the military prison there were set back last week when incoming legal and national security officials — barred until the inauguration from examining classified material on the detainees — discovered that there were no comprehensive case files on many of them.

Instead, they found that information on individual prisoners is “scattered throughout the executive branch,” a senior administration official said. The executive order Obama signed Thursday orders the prison closed within one year, and a Cabinet-level panel named to review each case separately will have to spend its initial weeks and perhaps months scouring the corners of the federal government in search of relevant material.

Several former Bush administration officials agreed that the files are incomplete and that no single government entity was charged with pulling together all the facts and the range of options for each prisoner. They said that the CIA and other intelligence agencies were reluctant to share information, and that the Bush administration’s focus on detention and interrogation made preparation of viable prosecutions a far lower priority.

Steve Benen summarizes this situation as well as anyone I’ve read:

On the one hand, the Bush administration released some detainees who apparently turned out to be pretty dangerous. On the other, the Bush administration refused to release other detainees who weren’t dangerous at all, and were actually U.S. allies.

But to put this in an even larger context, consider just how big a mess Bush has left for Obama here. The previous administration a) tortured detainees, making it harder to prosecute dangerous terrorists; b) released bad guys while detaining good guys; and c) neglected to keep comprehensive files on possible terrorists who’ve been in U.S. custody for several years. As if the fiasco at Gitmo weren’t hard enough to clean up.

I wonder if Bush managed to misplace the nuclear football while in office, too. After all, when you’re so concerned with keeping the country safe from death and devastation, stupid insignificant things like keeping records and knowing what you’re doing to who — and why – simply fall by the wayside. Only a mindless bureaucracy-loving liberal would care about such trivial practices.

And after all, yes maybe Bush totally screwed up literally everything he touched, but didn’t Bush kept us safe from attack these last eight years? Doesn’t that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that one needn’t keep silly things like “records” or file “paperwork”?

January 23, 2009

Three Days Since Tuesday

Filed under: Pakistan — Lee @ 9:46 pm

I.

Barack Obama has signed executive orders (i) closing Guantanamo (within a year), ending the deeply flawed military commission system, and reinstating habeas corpus to so-called enemy combatants; and (ii) ending torture by reinstating the Army Field Manual as the sole unified standard for interrogation of prisoners. This is good, though as Glenn Greenwald argues, one of the most crucial issues now facing the Obama administration regarding our legacy of torture is whether “tainted” evidence — i.e., evidence obtained by means of torture — will be allowed in trials of detainees deemed “too dangerous to release.”

As Greenwald puts it, interpreting Obama’s claim that we need to create “a process that adheres to rule of law, habeas corpus, basic principles of Anglo American legal system, by doing it in a way that doesn’t result in releasing people who are intent on blowing us up”:

There are detainees who the U.S. may not be able to convict in a court of law. Why not? Because the evidence that we believe establishes their guilt was obtained by torture, and it is therefore likely inadmissible in our courts (torture-obtained evidence is inadmissible in all courts in the civilized world; one might say it’s a defining attribute of being civilized). But Obama wants to detain them anyway — even though we can’t convict them of anything in our courts of law. So before he can close Guantanamo, he wants a new, special court to be created — presumably by an act of Congress — where evidence obtained by torture (confessions and the like) can be used to justify someone’s detention and where, presumably, other safeguards are abolished. That’s what he means when he refers to “creating a process.”

Amazingly, when discussing the same topic, Obama vowed that “we will send a message to the world that we are serious about our values.” How? By creating a new court just for accused Islamic radicals that allows us to use confessions and other evidence that we obtained through torture? That sounds like exactly the same “message about our values” that we’ve been sending.

One should say, as Greenwald does, that it’s not entirely certain that this is necessarily what Obama means by not releasing “people who are intent on blowing us up,” but rather that Obama hasn’t yet clarified what he intends to do with those who cannot be convicted in a court of law — because their confessions were elicited by means of torture — but whom he nonetheless (without trial) presumes to know definitely absolutely want to blow us up.

II.

In other news, the AP reports on Obama’s first ordered Predator drone strike inside Pakistan:

Suspected U.S. missiles killed 18 people on the Pakistan side of the Afghan border Friday, security officials said, the first attacks on the al-Qaida stronghold since President Barack Obama took office. At least five foreign militants were among those killed in the strikes by unmanned aircraft in two parts of the frontier region, an intelligence official said without naming them. There was no information on the identities of the others.

Pakistan’s leaders had expressed hope Obama might halt the strikes, but few observers expected he would end a tactic that U.S. officials say has killed several top al-Qaida operatives and is denying the terrorist network a long-held safe haven.

The United States has staged more than 30 missile strikes inside Pakistan since August last year — a barrage seen as a sign of frustration in Washington over Islamabad’s efforts to curb militants that the U.S. blames for violence in Afghanistan and fears could be planning attacks on the West.

The Times of London adds:

Security officials said the strikes, which saw up to five missiles slam into houses in separate villages, killed seven “foreigners” — a term that usually means al-Qaeda — but locals also said that three children lost their lives.

I post this story to ask, simply: do we think this is okay, bombing inside the territory of a country with which we are not at war? If so, why? Was George W. Bush justified in initiating this practice? Obama seems to have decided that he was.

January 20, 2009

We Are the Change We Seek

Filed under: 12 — Lee @ 5:55 am

Today, inauguration day, is an important day.

A country that at its founding was a brutal slaveholding society, that long after abolition systematically denigrated and segregated its black citizens, subjecting them to inhuman and cruel abuse, is celebrating the inauguration of its first black president. Despite the ongoing violence, terror, torture, and economic hardship that our country continues to participate in creating throughout the world, there is reason to celebrate. This moment is unambiguously historic — in a positive sense.

And yet I fear that in our embrace of the powerful symbolism of Barack Obama’s becoming our forty-fourth president we may come to rely on him too much as the sole legitimate agent of the change we claim to be seeking. Obama is one man in time and space. He is finite in his knowledge and limited in his power (despite what Dick Cheney would have you believe about the “unitary” executive). Decisions that we attribute to him — and rightly hold him responsible for, in an ultimate sense — will originate from all levels of his administration, sometimes with little to no input from him. When we talk about Obama in a sense we’re no longer talking about a person but a system of people, most of whom are very likely trying to do what they think is right, some of whom are cynically corrupt, others of whom will do thankless jobs of little obvious significance dutifully and anonymously.

I wish Obama well.

I hope the members of this new administration are sincere about their stated desire to lead this country in a better direction. I hope that Obama follows through on his progressive promises: moving us toward universal health care, rebalancing taxation in a more progressive direction, drawing down our troops in Iraq (ideally leaving no bases behind), curbing the emission of greenhouse gasses, investing in vital infrastructure, ending the practice of torture, using diplomacy more often, strengthening the international rule of law, and so on. I hope Obama changes his mind on other nationally and internationally important issues, such as his promise to add up to three brigades to Afghanistan, his desire to avoid war crime prosecutions, his continuing support of the 2008 amendments to FISA, and so on.

The future is not determined. It is not fixed. We will all choose together what kind of future we want to live in. In the days and months ahead we’re going to have to decide how involved we are in the politics of our country, for which we are all jointly responsible. I have previously on this blog distanced myself from the rhetoric of patriotism, because I am skeptical of how helpful it is in describing what we’re up to when we involve ourselves in politics — after all, who doesn’t claim to want what’s best for his or her country? — but today I’ll make an exception. I believe it’s the patriotic duty of every American to look within him- or herself and decide what he or she wants America to look like in the next decade — and the next century. What do we want to be true about the Obama years after they’re over? What sort of inaugural address will an American president deliver in 2109 as he, she, or it reflects back on how far we’ve come?

That is, we shouldn’t think about what some abstract entity called “America” wants to happen, what we think is “politically possible,” what we think will “sell” with the American people. We need to envision our personal idea of Utopia — along political, social, cultural, economic, gender lines (etc.) — and develop a clear and honest sense of how far we presently are from this ideal vision. This clear and articulate vision of what we want and where we want to go needs to guide our behavior and our forms of engagement with politics, our assessments of success and failure. In a sense, the exercise I’m describing was equally necessary under Bush, but I think if progressives of all stripes work together — with a clear sense of what they want to accomplish — we can produce greater change in this country than we’ve seen since the New Deal. We need to think big and long term.

But the change we’re seeking is only going to happen if we put pressure on those in positions of power, and if we create institutional barriers that’ll prevent the next Bush presidency from being nearly as destructive as the one we’re leaving behind. When one side of an argument fights passionately for its beliefs and aims, and the other side sits on its laurels waiting for its leaders to respond and do what was promised, the side that fights harder will win more of what it wants than the side that remains quiet. The Rush Limbaughs of the world have not gone away, nor will they anytime soon. They’re not going to stand by while their cherished political priorities are ignored or contradicted. That’s all well and good for them; they’re doing exactly what they ought to be doing, fighting for their sincere beliefs. We need to respond in kind, more forcefully, with a greater degree of coordination and organization, and at all levels: at the level of systems and at the level of symbols, in every state (and the District of Columbia, while we’re at it).

Without popular mobilization from below, Obama will not be nearly as progressive as he could be. Obama is quite right to say that we’re the change that we seek, in the sense that change will only come if we make it come and won’t if we don’t. We should honor his correctness by becoming the change we seek (another cliched-but-true statement): and by constantly pressuring Obama to enact changes we want, vigorously opposing him when he deviates from what we want. All of what I’ve written in this post is quite elementary, but it’s good to remind ourselves of these political precepts once in a while.

January 19, 2009

The Gingrich/Limbaugh Debate

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ian @ 12:52 am

Some Republicans want Obama to be a successful president, and others want him to be a failure.

The most important Republican in the success column is Newt Gingrich. This is what he said last month, effectively daring other national leaders of the Republican Party to disagree:

“I think the country is so tired right now of a style of Republican attack politics that has become a caricature of itself, they instinctively go, ‘I’m tired of that,’ ” said Newt Gingrich, a Republican and former speaker of the House. “It’s ineffective against Barack Obama right now. The country is faced with serious problems and is about to have a brand new president. You’d have to be irrational not to want the new president to succeed.”

Saul Anuzis, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party and a leading candidate to become the next leader of the Republican National Committee, offered a similar message on his blog. “Where necessary,” Mr. Anuzis wrote, “we should stand for what is right and forcefully be the loyal opposition. But partisan politics in times like these for the sake of politics is not healthy. “

The most important Republican (so far) who wants to see failure is Rush Limbaugh. Here is what he recently said in comments that were clearly intended to criticize Gingrich, Anuzis, and others like them:

On his radio show last week, Rush Limbaugh railed against “people on our side of the aisle who have caved and who say, ‘Well, I hope he succeeds. We have to give him a chance.’”

“Why?” Limbaugh demanded. “They didn’t give Bush a chance in 2000. Before he was inaugurated, the search-and-destroy mission had begun. I’m not talking about search-and-destroy, but I’ve been listening to Barack Obama for a year and a half. I know what his politics are. I know what his plans are, as he has stated them. I don’t want them to succeed.”

It’s noteworthy, I think, that Limbaugh’s first argument for wanting to see Obama fail is that so many Americans wanted Bush to fail in January 2001. In other words, Limbaugh sets aside the issue of what is best for the country, and focuses instead on the competition between the parties. (Limbaugh’s attitude is “partisan politics … for the sake of politics,” as Anuzis put it.) This attitude – that anything that’s good for Democrats is bad for Republicans, and what’s best for the country is merely an afterthought – is what enables Gingrich to pretend there is no difference between Obama’s overall success and Obama’s success at making progressive change.

Of course, this country is chock full of Republicans who don’t like the idea of universal health care, who believe it’s dangerous for Barack Obama to speak with our enemies, who think talk about the threat of global warming is a bunch of hoo-haw, and oppose Obama’s efforts to stimulate the economy through government spending. I disagree with these people, but I certainly recognize their right as free people to express their resistance to progressive ideas.

But Obama’s overall goals include keeping the American people safe, rescuing the American economy so people can find work to support themselves and their families, and working to bring about a more peaceful, healthy, prosperous world. After all, Obama’s “politics” — in other words, Obama’s progressive agenda — reflect these overall goals.

In wanting Obama to fail, Limbaugh might as well be saying he hopes Obama fails to keep us safe, fails to help people provide for their families, fails to improve the education of our children, etc. If Obama does fail, it will certainly damage the Democratic Party and help the Republicans. But it will also damage the country.

For some reason, it doesn’t matter that Obama has given every indication that he intends to include Republicans in his governance.

Consider the following from a recent Politico article:

It’s no secret Barack Obama is trying to seduce Republicans these days. But his conservative courting runs much deeper and wider than is publicly known.

Obama has had meetings with his former opponent John McCain, GOP congressional leaders and some of the country’s leading conservative commentators. He’s also honoring McCain and Colin Powell in high-profile pre-inaugural dinners, where Obama is expected to toast the Republicans.

Behind the scenes, Obama and his team are working just as hard, courting prominent Republicans and conservatives through frequent phone calls, e-mails and private sit-downs.

The selection of evangelical pastor Rick Warren for the inaugural invocation and Obama’s dinner with right-of-center writers at George F. Will’s home drew significant buzz. But the transition also has quietly reached out to other prominent figures atop the Southern Baptist Church, Charles Colson’s Prison Fellowship Ministry and the Jewish Orthodox Union.

“I think he’s done an extremely good job so far,” said Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), who received a call from the president-elect last week. “On both the quality of his nominees and the contact that he personally or his skeleton staff have had with members on the Hill — I think they’ve done just an exceptional job at that.”

It’s completely relevant that Gingrich is a professional political leader and Limbaugh is a professional radio talk show host. Limbaugh makes money by entertaining and titillating people with his over-the-top condemnation of liberals — he is an “outrage performance artist,” as Lee put it, and a “comedian,” as Keith Olbermann puts it.

Limbaugh’s industry relies upon hatred of Democrats. Even if Limbaugh believed he had a patriotic duty to hope that Obama will succeed in leading the country through the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, Limbaugh’s obligation to his employer, to his business, would compel him to continue casting Obama as the great Satan.

So thanks to Newt Gingrich for being rational, and for offering an alternative to Republicans who are too smart for Limbaugh’s snake oil. Luckily, it seems like Gingrich’s tack is winning some significant support:

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who just got back from the Middle East with Joe Biden, was with McCain and the president-elect in Chicago at the post-election meeting and met again with Obama Wednesday for about 45 minutes.

“Once the campaign is over, to govern you have to find consensus and I think he understands that,” said Graham, who will introduce McCain at the tribute dinner Monday. “Ronald Reagan understood the value of personal relationships and I think [Obama] understands that that model offers the best hope of sustaining momentum from the election and achieving legislative success. So far, so good.”

Graham, one of McCain’s closest friends and a frequent campaign trail companion, said much of the good will from his party stems from a patriotic desire to turn the country around.

“A lot of people, including Republicans, want us to get back on our feet because we’re on our knees. And he’s the quarterback, he’s the captain – everybody is pulling for him.”

January 17, 2009

Tom Friedman has always been an environmentalist

Filed under: Ha-Joon Chang, Matt Taibbi, Tom Friedman — Lee @ 7:39 pm

Tom Friedman is a bad man.

That’s the consensus of many people on the left who have been reading Friedman’s popular NYT column over the years. It’s an opinion I share. Friedman has never encountered a U.S.-initiated war — not even one — that he didn’t enthusiastically support from his perch at the Times. He was one of the most vocal supporters of the so-called golden straitjacket that the U.S. — through the vehicles of the IMF and World Bank — insisted that developing countries put on, on the theory that (as Larry Summers once put it) “[t]he laws of economics, it’s often forgotten, are like laws of engineering. There’s only one set of laws, and they work everywhere.”

This very narrow and specific set of destructive economic policies is what many mainstream commentators mean when they talk about “globalization”; Friedman characterized those who opposed his favorite policies as “Anarchists and leftover Marxists” who have “produced noise but nothing that has improved anyone’s life.”

Lately though, Friedman has used his column to document a sort of “conversion” to green politics — finding his inner Keynes — expressing his sudden desire for massive government investment in new technologies and intervention into the “free” market. Matt Taibbi, who brilliantly and hilariously tore apart Friedman’s The World is Flat, is on the case again, taking apart the latest masterpiece of Friedmanism, Hot, Flat, and Crowded.

To review quickly, the “Long Bomb” Iraq war plan Friedman supported as a means of transforming the Middle East blew up in his and everyone else’s face; the “Electronic Herd” of highly volatile international capital markets he once touted as an economic cure-all not only didn’t pan out, but led the world into a terrifying chasm of seemingly irreversible economic catastrophe; his beloved “Golden Straitjacket” of American-style global development (forced on the world by the “hidden fist” of American military power) turned out to be the vehicle for the very energy/ecological crisis Friedman himself warns about in his new book; and, most humorously, the “Flat World” consumer economics Friedman marveled at so voluminously turned out to be grounded in such total unreality that even his wife’s once-mighty shopping mall empire, General Growth Properties, has lost 99 percent of its value in this year alone.

I am saddened to report that Mr. Taibbi, brilliant as he can be, has his analysis wrong in this case. The “golden straitjacket” that Friedman wanted to impose on the rest of the world is not an example of “American-style… development.” It’s actually something like the opposite of American-style development; America was built on massively protectionist and interventionist measures in more or less every major globally competitive industry since the Revolution: from agriculture, to steel production, to the current high-tech economy. We were the world’s greatest intellectual property thieves and advocates of infant-industry protection.

Indeed, most serious economists will admit that the “golden straightjacket” policies that Friedman supported have been an economic disaster from a growth and development perspective; China, the supposed poster child for globalization (in the narrow sense defined above), in fact became successful specifically by flouting the advice of people like Friedman. As Ha-Joon Chang, a smart Korean economist (should we consider him an anarchist or a leftover Marxist?), notes:

The developing countries grew much faster when they used “bad” trade and industrial policies during 1960–1980 than when they used “good” (at least “better”) policies during the following two decades. The obvious solution to this paradox is to accept that the supposedly good policies are actually not good for the developing countries but that the “bad” policies are actually good for them. This gets further confirmation from the fact that these “bad” policies are also the ones that the NDCs [now-developed countries] had pursued when they were developing countries themselves.

When you keep these facts in mind, an obvious line of logic presents itself. “Golden straitjacket” policies lead to slower economic growth than “developmentalist” policies. Slower growth means less consumption. Less consumption leads to less carbon emissions. It is therefore apparent that Friedman’s support for the “golden straightjacket” was always a kind of environmentalism hidden in plain sight — since his support for such policies led directly to less carbon in the atmosphere. Who would have guessed?

January 16, 2009

Stay Classy, Republican Party!

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ian @ 7:57 pm

I want Republican candidates to lose elections — but I do realize that even when they are in the minority, Republicans will influence the course of our nation’s history. I also realize that many Republican voters sincerely want what’s best for this country (even if they have bad ideas about what’s best).

And so even I, a happy Democrat, was flabbergasted when I recently read a blog on Townhall.com written by Ken Blackwell, a former Ohio Secretary of State and one of the leading candidates to be the G.O.P.’s next chairman:

A week ago, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, mentioned Mr. Obama says his goal is for 80% of these three million jobs to be private-sector. That means, Senator McConnell continued, that 20% would be public-sector, meaning this bill would create 600,000 new federal government jobs. For comparison, Mr. McConnell noted this would be the size of the entire Postal Service workforce.

Once government creates a job, it rarely eliminates it. Government swells by nature, feeding on tax dollars taken away from private citizens and employers until it becomes a bloated, sprawling bureaucracy.

So if Mr. Obama creates 600,000 new government bureaucrats, those jobs should be expected to be kept around permanently, long after this economic crisis is resolved. After all, eliminating those jobs means laying off 600,000 people. Who wants to take responsibility for that?

But most federal employees, that are not political appointees, vote Democrat. Since Washington, DC is the seat of government, whenever new federal bureaucrats are created many live in Maryland and Virginia. In 2008, Virginia went Democrat for the first time since 1964, and Mr. Obama won it by 130,000 votes. Creating 600,000 new jobs might help cement Virginia in the Democrat column, making it harder for Republicans to retake the White House.

So this bill, as currently designed, has serious flaws, some of which convey a partisan advantage. These must be thoroughly discussed and understood, and any major legislation cannot be allowed to benefit one party in what must be a bipartisan solution.

Of course, Blackwell’s policy-based opposition to the creation of 600,000 new federal jobs isn’t surprising – the language of “a bloated, sprawling bureaucracy” and a government “feeding on tax dollars taken away from private citizens” is standard right-wing rhetoric.

(If Republicans could mobilize public support with kind of talk, they would have won the last election — but alas (for them), this attitude toward government seems so outdated and simple-minded in the context of our current financial crisis. Most Americans are willing to take a chance on Obama that he is competant enough to employ 600,000 workers to make important investments in our collective future. They don’t view Obama as “feeding” and “bloated” — they view him as “investing” in our nation’s prosperity.)

But then Blackwell takes a truly awe-inspiring turn for the cynical when he suggests that hiring 600,000 new federal employees will effectively create almost 600,000 more voting Democrats in Virginia or Maryland. In other words, Blackwell is setting aside the question of whether this plan is best for the country, and arguing that Republicans should oppose it because it’s bad for the Republican Party.

For those Americans who care more about the success of the Republican Party than they care about the success of the American economy, Blackwell’s point may be persuasive. But for the rest of us — the vast majority, I would guess — Blackwell’s point is just gross. If these proposed jobs won’t help the economy, then we should obviously oppose them because they will only inflate the federal deficit and put the government in the awkward position of having to eventually fire 600,000 federal employees. And if these jobs will help the economy (and jobs tend to be helpful), then ar argument for opposing them on partisan grounds is offensive. Blackwell might as well argue that this proposal should be criticized because it would make Democrats more popular — and that will do plenty for the Democratic Party in Virginia. 

Blackwell’s post makes the Republican Party look ridiculous (which is fine with me) — but it also degrades our political discourse, appealing to a sense of paranoia and division. Republicans can forcefully advance Republican arguments without reducing every political issue to a question of which party wins and which party loses. Blackwell’s post may be bad for Republicans, but it’s bad for the country as well.  

Just imagine what would happen if our elected leaders took Blackwell’s advice, and “thoroughly discussed,” perhaps on C-SPAN, the electoral advantage Democrats would supposedly enjoy if the federal government hired another 600,000 employees. Imagine if Republican Congressmen and Senators made floor speeches arguing that “any major legislation cannot be allowed to benefit one party in what must be a bipartisan solution.”

It would be disgusting. It would send a signal to the American people that these politicians are concerned, first and foremost, with keeping their jobs — and only secondarily concerned with doing their jobs.

It may sound cheap when politicians go on television and say things like, “this isn’t about Democrat versus Republican,” or “we have to get beyond partisanship and focus on doing what’s right for the American people.” It sounds cheap because it’s difficult sometimes to imagine a politician advocating the opposite view.

Thank you, Mr. Blackwell, for demonstrating the attitude these politicians are rejecting when they say such things.

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