I can see myself in two years, standing in line at the unemployment office, weaing headphones, listening to a news broadcast about the 2010 midterm elections.
” … After four years as the minority party, the GOP regained control of Congress last week when Republicans won back majorities in both the House and the Senate. The mid-term elections have been widely interpreted as a repudiation of Democrats’ handling of the economy over the past two years, and the new Republican Congressional majorities are expected to push for a more coservative approach to the nation’s economic problems while presenting more obstacles for President Obama as he continues to try to implement his agenda. The GOP’s impressive resurgence came less than two years after the 2008 election, which left the Republicans outnumbered in Congress and unpopular across the country, but the party rose from the ashes by convincing many Americans that Obama and the Democrats have failed in their efforts to guide the economy out of a deep recession. Although the economy clearly eclipsed almost all other issues in campaigns across the country over the past several months, the Republican takeover threatens to undermine or reverse the few accomplishments Democrats can point to during their brief two years of dominance in Washington, on issues ranging from health care and the environment to taxes, civil liberties, education and more. If Barack Obama intends to accomplish anything between now and his reelection campaign in 2012, he’ll need to forge compromises with GOP legislators who are eager to cast him as incompetant and out-of-touch with middle-class Americans suffering from high taxes, and out-of-touch with a business community hamstrung by excessive government regulation. On the other hand, Republicans must convince some Democrats — and especially the more conservative, Blue Dog Democrats — to join them if they hope to pass the proposals they campaigned on, proposals the President has promised to veto. As the clouds of partisan confrontation seem to gather over Washington, political scientists and analysts remain concerned about polls indicating the popularity of both political parties are at dangerously low levels. “People are hurting more now than at any time since the Great Depression, and they simply don’t beleive the politicians care…”
This is what I see in our future if Obama can’t convince the American people that he’s doing a good job of leading this country through our economic situation.
So it’s time for you to ask yourself two questions.
First, do you care about:
– Providing health care to the 40-plus million Americans who don’t have it?
- Reforming our school so our children will be able to compete in a global economy?
– Breaking our addiction to oil?
– Stopping the use of torture, once and for all?
– Protecting our country from terrorist attacks?
I could name dozens of other things you might care about. If you care about any of these things, then the next question you should ask is: Will it be good or bad if the Republicans win back control of Congress in two years?
If you agree with me that it would be very bad for the country if the Republicans regained control of Congress in 2010, then please consider this: I strongly believe the outcome of the Congressional midterm elections will hinge almost entirely on the American public’s perception of Obama’s handling of the economy. If Obama and the Democrats seem to be doing a good job on this single issue, the Dems are sure to maintain their majorities which may even grow. If Obama and the Democrats are perceived as failures, they will almost certainly lose.
Remember what Obama said: We are the change we’ve been looking for.
Now, if we want to implement a Democratic agenda in this country, we must support Obama and the Democrats in their efforts to protect this country from economic catastrophe. And there isn’t much time, so let’s focus.
I think there are two concerns embedded in this post:
One, how do we convince the American people that Barack Obama is doing a good job with the economy? I’d suggest that the actual performance of the economy is what people will refer to in making this assessment: Do I feel secure at my job? Am I better off than I was four years ago? Will my children be able to attend a decent college? Will they have health care when they get sick?
If we want to help Obama get credit for a good economy, we need to convince the Obama administration to do what we think will actually help the economy. I think what will help the economy succeed is: universal health care; intelligent regulation of volatile financial markets; massive public spending on infrastructure, “green” R&D, economic assistance and development to economically ailing parts of the economy and persons, etc.
Two, I sense a fear in your post that should Obama be unfairly blamed for the failures of the economy–an economy which falters through no fault of his own–then what little progress he will have been able to achieve will be instantly and ruthlessly rolled back by a subsequent Republican administration.
I share your fear, but perhaps draw a different conclusion about what must be done to avert this sort of very probable disaster. If Obama wants to ensure that future Republican administrations can’t do what Bush has done, he needs to roll back executive power. He needs to reestablish checks and balances that have been killed off, often with the aid of Congress. He needs to handcuff future administrations to the rule of law. Outlaw/renounce executive signing statements and orders. Etc.
We must operate under the assumption that politicians to the right of Obama can and will make a comeback, likely a big comeback. Such is the nature of politics. Parties come and go, but the rule of law and constrains imposed by the Constitution must prevent the abuse of power.
Comment by Lee — November 27, 2008 @ 2:47 am
To Lee: you write “If we want to help Obama get credit for a good economy, we need to convince the Obama administration to do what we think will actually help the economy.”
I agree with you 100% that if we want to support Obama’s efforts to improve the economy, we have to work as hard as we can to encourage Obama to do what it takes to make sure the economy actually improves. The American people will know it in two years if the economy is bad, and I certainly would never suggest that we should try to convince people that the economy is better than it is.
I don’t doubt that Obama is motivated to improve the economy, but he’s probably facing political pressure from people whose ideas won’t work. “Supporting” Obama means supporting the policies we think Obama should implement — because that’s how we counterbalance the pressure Obama is facing from people whose ideas are bad. My point is that we need to start thinking about what should be done to improve the economy, as our thinking will (perhaps indirectly, in the case of our blog) help Obama. The more Americans are thinking about what Obama should do next, the better it is for Obama, in my opinion.
You also write: “I think what will help the economy succeed is: universal health care; intelligent regulation of volatile financial markets; massive public spending on infrastructure, “green” R&D, economic assistance and development to economically ailing parts of the economy and persons, etc.”
I agree that massive public spending on infrastructure and economic assistance will do a lot to improve the economy over the short term. But intelligent regulation and green R&D won’t do a lot for the US economy between now and 2010. And Universal Health care will take at least two years just to implement, by which time the 2010 elections will have come and gone. I totally agree that these are urgent priorities and should be done right away, but these aren’t things that will help the economy improve between now and 2010.
I agree that executive power should be rolled back, but I wonder if this is an issue that Obama can make any strong headway on between now and 2010. In other words, are there steps Obama can take soon to permanently roll back executive authority in a way that would constrain his successor (God forbid) in 2012? Is there anything a President Obama can do that a President Palin couldn’t undo in 2012? Because if the answer is no, then this makes it all the more important that Obama and the Dems keep the Republicans from taking power until the “unprecedented” power grabs by the Bush administration seen weird again.
Comment by Ian — November 29, 2008 @ 12:43 pm